
The
2,740 planets detected by Kepler as they passed in front of their stars
are depicted here as black dots. View the image full size to appreciate
the true avolume of data. (Credit: Kepler/NASA)

Kepler’s
results show that about one in six stars has one or more Earth-sized
planets in a fast orbit. That translates to at least 17 billion such
planets in our galaxy, and many more planets in slower, Earth-like
orbits. Credit: F. Fressin (CfA)

A
bewildering variety of planets have been found by the Kepler
spacecraft. This illustration is based on best guesses about what those
planets are like. Further study almost guarantees more surprises.
(Credit: C. Pulliam & D. Aguilar/CfA)
After more than four years in space, restlessly searching for planets
orbiting other stars, NASA’s Kepler space telescope may have met its
demise.
The Kepler project is typically described in terms of raw numbers. As
of the last official announcement, it had found 2,740 likely new
planets–including 1,200 Neptune-size planets, 350 Earth-size planets,
and at least 4 planets that orbit within the “habitable zone” where
liquid water can exist. All of those numbers are sure to increase, as
more observations are confirmed and as mission scientists continue to
dig through a trove of archived data. But spirit, not statistics, is
what really defines Kepler. It is a modern version of the expedition of
Lewis and Clark, or the great voyages of Vasco da Gama and Ferdinand
Magellan. It is a headlong plunge into the unknown cosmic territory
around us.
Extrapolating from Kepler’s results, astronomers now estimate there
are at least 17 billion Earth-size planets in our galaxy. That is
another number, yes, but one with a powerful message: Another age of
exploration awaits, one that may very well lead to the discovery that
humanity is not alone in the universe.
There could hardly be a sharper contrast between Kepler’s grandiose
mission and the humble mechanical failure that threatens to end it. The
fault lies in one of the telescope’s gyroscopic reaction wheels, a key
component of its pointing system. Kepler needs three reaction wheels
running at all times to maintain a stable position. Think of it like a
stool: Two legs are just not enough to keep things balanced.
Extreme stability is essential because of the way that Kepler finds
planets around other stars. It points a 0.95-meter (3-foot)
light-collecting mirror toward the constellation Cygnus, watching
approximately 150,000 stars and monitoring the tiny dimming that happens
whenever a planet passes in front of one of them. And by tiny I mean
tiny;
Kepler seeks out brightness changes as slight as 0.01 percent. Since
all the stars in Kepler’s field of view are quite close together in the
sky, and since the shadows of passing planets are exceedingly subtle,
there is little room for error.
Kepler started out with four functional reaction wheels, allowing for
one to go bad without harming the mission. Last July, wheel #2 failed
and was switched off. On May 12, wheel #4 apparently failed as well,
leaving only two working wheels and sending Kepler into an automatic
“safe” mode.
That is not necessarily the end of the line for the hardy telescope, which has been operating nonstop for 1,532 days. Scott Hubbard,
former director of NASA’s Ames Research Center, notes that it might be
possible to restart wheel #2 and see if it is now functional, which is
possible if its lubrication shifted in the interim. Kepler has thruster
rockets that could be used to stand in for the third reaction wheel, at
least for a few months until the propellant runs out. NASA mission
planners have also discussed trying to run wheel #4 backward or
otherwise getting it somewhat operational again.
So a requiem for Kepler is somewhat premature. It is also not the
right tone. If this is the end of the mission, there is far more to
celebrate than there is to mourn. The Kepler team just posted an upbeat assessment
of what comes next: “Even if data collection were to end, the mission
has substantial quantities of data on the ground yet to be fully
analyzed, and the string of scientific discoveries is expected to
continue for years to come.” William Borucki
, the principal investigator for Kepler, is optimistic that more Earth-like planets lurk within that trove.
Last week, an international team used Kepler data to identify a new planet, nicknamed “Einstein’s planet,” using a novel technique
based on the effects of relativity. Multiple ground-based efforts will
carry on the search for planets around other stars, and NASA recently
approved a successor mission, TESS, that will specifically seek nearby Earthlike worlds.
This is also a good time to recall how extraordinary it is that the Kepler mission happened at all. Last year Borucki gave an in-depth interview
with Andrew Grant, an associate editor at DISCOVER, describing the
hurdles that he and his collaborators overcame to make the mission
happen–a process that at times seemed more Sisyphean than Herculean.
In the 1970s, when Borucki began thinking about searching for
extrasolar planets, nobody knew if such planets even existed. In the
1980s, when Borucki began sketching out the starlight-dimming search
technique that Kepler uses, most of his colleagues scoffed. “The
reviewers quickly rejected it,” he recalls. “They said there were no
detectors that could make such precise measurements.”
I clearly remember the mood at that time, because I too was obsessed
with the idea of planets around other stars back when it was more
science fiction than fact. In the 1950s an 1960s, Dutch astronomer Peter
van de Kamp reported evidence of planets around Barnard’s Star and 61
Cygni–but these claims were later debunked. In his book
The Cosmic Connection,
Carl Sagan showcased some elegant simulations of what other planetary
systems might look like–but these were only theoretical models.
For years, Canadian astronomer Bruce Campbell championed the idea of
watching the back-and-forth motions of stars to search for the
gravitational pull of unseen planets. That technique eventually turned
out to be spectacularly successful, but it required a level of precision
beyond what Campbell could attain.
Campbell is a forgotten hero
in the quest to find to find new worlds beyond our solar system. His
pioneering work made possible the series of spectacular planetary finds
that began with the discovery of a searing-hot, Jupiter-size planet
around 51 Pegasi in 1995. Seven years before that, Campbell (along with
Gordon Walker and Stephenson Yang) published a paper presenting evidence
for a planet around the star Gamma Cephei. He admitted that the
detection was tentative, since it was right at the limits of what his
equipment could do.
The report received little attention, and Campbell’s name is missing
from most stories about the discovery of exoplanets. He barely registers
in a Google search (even after you weed out the other Bruce Campbell,
the one who stars in
Burn Notice). But the Gamma Cephei planet was eventually confirmed, and the 1988 paper by Campbell, Walker, and Stephenson is the very first verified detection of a planet around another star.
Whether or not this is the end of the Kepler spacecraft, Kepler’s
mission–and the mission of Campbell, Borucki, and the many many others
who made it possible–goes on. The next great moment in the age of
planetary discovery lies just ahead.-NASA